St. Cloud State University Survey
Annual Fall Statewide Survey
2008
LAST
REVISED 10-24-08
![MCj03352160000[1]](f08SCSU_files/image004.gif)
STEPHEN I. FRANK
PROFESSOR, AND CHAIRPERSON, DEPARTMENT OF
POLITICAL SCIENCE
CO-DIRECTOR, SCSU SURVEY
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
MICHELLE KUKOLECA HAMMES
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
CO-DIRECTOR, SCSU SURVEY
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
DAVID ROBINSON
PROFESSOR,
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND COMPUTER NETWORKING
CO-DIRECTOR, SCSU SURVEY
COLLEGE OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
STEVEN C. WAGNER
PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
CO-DIRECTOR, SCSU SURVEY
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
(ON LEAVE FROM SURVEY 2008-2009)
SANDRINE ZERBIB
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY & ANTHROPOLOGY
CO-DIRECTOR, SCSU SURVEY
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
(ON LEAVE FROM SURVEY FALL 2008)
PRINT COPY OF CATI QUESTIONNAIRE
October 2008
SCSU Survey- PRESS
RELEASE
Summary of Most
Results From the
Fall 2008 SCSU
Statewide Survey
The
SCSU Survey completed its annual fall statewide omnibus and has released most
of the results which can be found http:// web.stcloudstate.edu/scsusurvey
NOTE: BEST TO USE INTERNET EXPLORER
FOR VIEWING
.
500+
randomly chosen adult Minnesotans shared their views on a variety of pertinent
topics, including:
-
The
general direction the state and country are taking.
-
The
biggest problem facing Minnesota and the U.S. and which political party, if
any, can best handle the problem.
-
Job
ratings for President Bush
-
Ratings
on the SCSU Survey “Feeling Thermometer” (George Bush, John McCain, Barack
Obama, Cindy McCain, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Pawlenty, Norm
Coleman, Al Franken, Dean Barkley, Michelle Obama, and Hillary Rodham Clinton).
-
US
President and Senate trial heat questions.
-
Trial
heat question follow-up questions on why they are voting for the candidate they
selected.
Breakdowns
by party, ideology, area of the state, gender, age, religion, household income,
education, employment status and other variables can be made available.
A
major difference in this year’s survey is the use of both landline and cell
phone numbers using separate random digit dialing procedures. Also, in the trial heat questions candidate’s
names were rotated. Major efforts were made to reach hard to get respondents by
calling up to 10 times over seven days of calling. The demographics of the
sample are a very close match to the demographics of the state although some
weighting was done, especially to the cell phone sample which was a much
younger set of respondents.
509
respondents Overall Sample Error after
weighting 4.6%.
TOP LINE RESULTS
Over
8 of 10 Minnesota adults think the country is headed on the wrong track. 4 of
10 think the state is headed on the wrong track.
Financial/economic
factors are cited as the biggest problem facing the country. Democrats are seen
as the party best able to handle problems especially the financial crisis.
Five
issues are almost evenly tied as the biggest problem facing the state led by
education with 12%. Democrats are given a slight edge as problem solvers and on
specific issues such as education, financial crisis and health care.
Republicans are seen as better able to deal with taxes (caution small n’s).
Barack
Obama has a slight edge (5%) over John McCain while Al Franken trails Norm
Coleman by about 8%. Compared to other surveys these results are lower for
Obama and Franken compared to what some have found. There is little difference between all adult
Minnesotans, registered voter Minnesotans, and likely voter MN. (voted in 2006
or good reason such as age not to, registered or plan to register, very or
somewhat likely to vote).
REASONS
FOR VOTING AND BREAKOUTS ARE IN ATTACHMENT OR CONTACT A FACULTY DIRECTOR
Adapting
the University of Michigan’s “feeling thermometer” as a measure of
warmth-likeability the order of warmth are (the mean excluded respondents who
said they didn’t know the person, couldn’t judge or the less than 1% who
refused to rate). Ratings above 50 are considered warm and favorable. Below 50
are cool and unfavorable.
|
NAME |
MEAN |
NUMBER WHO RATED |
|
OBAMA |
54 |
481 |
|
PAWLENTY |
53 |
456 |
|
KLOBUCHAR |
53 |
426 |
|
HR CLINTON |
53 |
486 |
|
MICHELLE OBAMA |
51 |
430 |
|
JOE BIDEN |
51 |
428 |
|
JOHN MCCAIN |
50 |
492 |
|
DEAN BARKLEY |
49 |
286 |
|
CINDY MCCAIN |
47 |
395 |
|
NORM COLEMAN |
46 |
487 |
|
SARA PALIN |
42 |
475 |
|
AL FRANKEN |
38 |
463 |
|
GEORGE BUSH |
33 |
492 |
Breakdowns
are available for variables such as gender. For example both men and women rate
Governor Palin about the same.
6
of 10 Minnesotans disapprove of our current policy toward Iraq.
Only
17% rate President Bush’s job performance as positive.
SOME PAST
RESULTS -
THE
SCSU SURVEY IS DONE AT LEAST A WEEK OR
SO BEFORE THE ELECTION.
|
|
2000 |
|
2004 |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
scsu survey |
Actual |
Scsu |
Actual |
survey |
actual |
|
BUSH |
38/41 |
45 |
BUSH 42 |
47 |
KLOB 46 |
58 |
|
GORE |
39/38 |
48 |
KERRY 49 |
51 |
KENNEDY 30 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
16% difference |
20% difference |
|
DAYTON |
47/48 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
GRAMS |
43 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
Presidential
Election- All Respondents |
||
|
Thanks. Our next series of questions relate to next
month's Presidential election. If the November 2008 election for President of the
United States were being held today, would you vote for John McCain, Barack
Obama, Ralph Nader, Robert Barr, or another candidate? [IF NOT SURE] Although you are not sure, would you say you lean more
toward Obama, McCain, Barr, Nader, or another candidate? |
||
|
Response |
Frequency All Respondents |
Percent All Respondents |
|
McCain |
182 |
37 |
|
Obama |
208 |
42 |
|
Barr |
16 |
3 |
|
Nader |
0 |
0 |
|
Other Candidate |
17 |
4 |
|
Won’t Vote |
10 |
2 |
|
Don’t Know |
59 |
12 |
|
Total |
492 |
100 |
\\
Senate
Election- All Respondents |
||
|
Our next series of questions relate to next month's
Senate election. If the November 2008 election for Senate were being
held today, would you vote for Al Franken, Dean Barkley, Norm Coleman, or a
candidate of another party? [IF NOT SURE] Although you are not sure, would you say you lean more
toward Coleman, Barkley, Franken, or a candidate or another party? |
||
|
Response |
Frequency All Respondents |
Percent All Respondents |
|
Coleman |
176 |
36 |
|
Franken |
132 |
27 |
|
Barkley |
79 |
16 |
|
Other Candidate |
12 |
2 |
|
Won’t Vote |
14 |
3 |
|
Don’t Know |
82 |
16 |
|
Total |
495 |
100 |
OTHER POLLS
|
RCP Average |
10/15 - 10/22 |
-- |
-- |
52.8 |
40.5 |
Obama +12.3 |
|
10/22 - 10/22 |
500 LV |
4.5 |
56 |
41 |
Obama +15 |
|
|
10/19 - 10/22 |
583 LV |
4.2 |
57 |
38 |
Obama +19 |
|
|
10/16 - 10/20 |
402 RV |
4.9 |
50 |
40 |
Obama +10 |
|
|
10/16 - 10/18 |
655 LV |
3.9 |
50 |
44 |
Obama +6 |
|
|
10/16 - 10/17 |
1049 LV |
3.8 |
52 |
41 |
Obama +11 |
|
|
10/15 - 10/16 |
600 LV |
4.0 |
52 |
39 |
Obama +13 |
|
Date |
Sample |
Franken (D) |
Coleman (R) |
Barkley (I) |
Spread |
|
|
RCP Average |
10/15 - 10/22 |
-- |
40.0 |
37.4 |
17.2 |
Franken +2.6 |
|
10/22 - 10/22 |
500 LV |
41 |
37 |
17 |
Franken +4 |
|
|
10/19 - 10/22 |
583 RV |
40 |
34 |
15 |
Franken +6 |
|
|
10/16 - 10/17 |
1049 LV |
39 |
36 |
18 |
Franken +3 |
|
|
10/16 - 10/18 |
655 LV |
39 |
41 |
18 |
Coleman +2 |
|
|
10/15 - 10/16 |
600 LV |
41 |
39 |
18 |
Franken +2 |
See All
Minnesota Senate Polling Data
=========================================================
Other
questions such as spending patterns of Minnesotans in light of recent financial
downturns will be released later.
The
questions, analysis and reports are the product of the undergraduate/graduate
students and faculty who work with the SCSU Survey.
Questions
may be directed to the faculty directors of the Survey:
Steve
Frank, sfrank@stcloudstate.edu, 320-308-4131
Michelle
Kukoleca Hammes, mhammes@stcloudstate.edu, 320-308-4130
David
Robinson dhrobinson@stcloudstate.edu 320-308-2149
(Professors Wagner and Zerbib are on leave.)
I.
Introduction
to the Report and Methods
The SCSU Survey is an ongoing
survey research extension of the Social Science Research Institute in the
College of Social Sciences at St. Cloud State University. The SCSU Survey
performs its research in the form of telephone interviews.
Dr. Stephen Frank began the survey
in 1980 conducting several omnibus surveys a year of central Minnesota adults
in conjunction with his Political Science classes. Presently, the omnibus surveys continue, but
have shifted to a primary statewide focus.
These statewide surveys are conducted once a year in the fall and focus
on statewide issues such as election races, current events, and other important
issues that are present in the state of Minnesota.
The primary
mission of the SCSU Survey is to serve the academic community and public and
nonprofit sector community through its commitment to high quality survey
research and to provide education and experiential opportunities to researchers
and students. We strive to assure that
all SCSU students and faculty directors contribute to the research process, as all
are essential in making a research project successful. This success is measured by our ability to
obtain high quality survey data that is timely, accurate, and reliable, while
maintaining an environment that promotes the professional and personal growth
of each staff member. The survey
procedures used by the SCSU Survey adhere to the highest quality academic
standards. The SCSU Survey maintains the
highest ethical standards in its procedures and methods. Both faculty and student directors demonstrate
integrity and respect for dignity in all interactions with colleagues, clients,
researchers, and survey participants.
II.
Survey Personnel
The Survey’s faculty directors are Dr. Steve Frank
(SCSU Professor of Political Science), Dr. Steven Wagner (SCSU Professor of
Political Science),Dr. David Robinson (SCSU Professor of Statistics and
Computer Networking). Dr. Michelle Kukoleca Hammes (SCSU Associate Professor of
Political Science and Dr. Sandrine Zerbib (SCSU Assistant Professor of
Sociology). The faculty directors are members of the Midwest Association of
Public Opinion Research (M.A.P.O.R.) and the American Association of Public
Opinion Research (A.A.P.O.R.). The directors subscribe to the code of ethics of
A.A.P.O.R.
a. Stephen I. Frank
Dr. Frank holds a Doctor of
Philosophy in Political Science from Washington State University. Dr. Frank teaches courses in American
Politics, Public Opinion and Research Methods at St. Cloud State University. Dr. Frank started the SCSU Survey in 1980, and
since has played a major role in the development, administration and analysis
of over 150 telephone surveys for local and state governments, school districts
and a variety of nonprofit agencies. Dr.
Frank has completed extensive postgraduate work in survey research at the
University of Michigan. Dr. Frank
coauthored with Dr. Wagner and published by Harcourt College, “We Shocked the World!” A Case Study of Jesse Ventura’s Election as
Governor of Minnesota. Revised Edition.
He also recently published two academic book chapters: one appears in
the current edition of Perspectives on
Minnesota Government and Politics and the other, co-authored with Dr.
Wagner, is contained in Campaigns and Elections, edited by Robert Watson
and Colton Campbell. Dr. Frank is past
chairperson of the SCSU Department of Political Science and recently served as
President of the Minnesota Political Science Association.
b. Steven C. Wagner (On Leave
From The Survey 2008-2009 Academic Year)
Dr. Wagner holds a Doctor of
Philosophy in Political Science and a Master of Public Administration from
Northern Illinois University. Dr. Wagner
earned his Bachelor of Science in Political Science from Illinois State
University. Dr. Wagner teaches courses
in American Politics and Public and Nonprofit Management at St. Cloud State
University. Dr. Wagner joined the SCSU
Survey in 1997. Before coming to SCSU,
Dr. Wagner taught in Kansas where he engaged in community-based survey research
and before that was staff researcher for the U.S. General Accounting
Office. Dr. Wagner has written many
papers on taxation, and state politics and has published articles on voting
behavior, federal funding of local services and organizational decision making. Dr. Wagner, with Dr. Frank, recently
published two texts on Jesse Ventura’s election as Minnesota’s Governor and a
book chapter on the campaign. Dr. Wagner currently serves the SCSU Department
of Political Science as its chairperson.
C. Michelle Kukoleca Hammes
Dr. Kukoleca Hammes holds a Doctor
of Philosophy in Political Science and a Masters in Political Science from the
State University of New York at Binghamton.
Dr. Kukoleca Hammes earned her Bachelor of Arts in Political Science
from Niagara University. Kr. Kukoleca
Hammes’ is a comparativist with an area focus on North America and Western
Europe. Her substantive focus is
representative governmental institutions.
She teaches courses in American Government, Introduction to Ideas and
Institutions, Western European Politics, and a Capstone in Political Science at
St. Cloud State University. Dr. Kukoleca
Hammes, since joining the survey team, is using her extensive graduate school
training in political methodology to aid in questionnaire construction and results
analysis. She recently published a book
chapter on Minnesota public participation in the Fifth Edition of Perspectives
on Minnesota Government and Politics.
D. David H. Robinson
Dr. Robinson holds a Doctor of
Philosophy in Statistics and a Masters in Statistics from the University of
Iowa. Dr. Robinson earned his Bachelor
of Science in Mathematics from Henderson State University. At St. Cloud State University, Dr. Robinson
teaches courses in survey planning and contingency tables, statistical methods
for the social sciences, probability and computer simulation, and other
statistical applications. Since coming
to SCSU in 1985 and before that time, Dr. Robinson has served as statistical
consultant for numerous statistical analyses of survey results. He has coauthored a book on computer
simulation and analysis, and has published articles in the areas of
nonparametric statistics, multivariate statistics, analysis of baseball
statistics, and statistical analysis of computer network performance. Dr. Robinson recently served as chairperson
for the SCSU Department of Statistics and Computer Networking.
E. Sandrine
Zerbib (On Leave From The Survey Fall 2008)
Dr. Zerbib holds a Doctor of
Philosophy in Sociology from the University of California Irvine and a Masters
in Sociology from both California State University-Fullerton and University of
Paris 10-Nanterre (France). Dr. Zerbib’s ongoing research focuses on issues of
immigration, sexuality and citizenship.
Dr. Zerbib’s current research analyzes the effect of domestic
partnership laws on gay bi-national couples leaving in France. She is currently collaborating with Dr.
Downey on belly dance performance and gender politics. She teaches courses in
Research Methods, Sociology of Gender, Immigration and Citizenship, and
Advanced Research Methods
III.
Call
Center Supervisors and Interviewers
Without the assistance of survey student directors, this project would
not have been completed. They are:
LEAD DIRECTOR
Ms. Renee Helm, 4th Year Student,
Public Administration Major with Mathematics Minor, St. Joseph, Minnesota
Survey Lab Student Directors
Ms.
Heidi Nelson, 4th year student, Political Science and History Majors, New Hope,
MN
Ms. Hadiza Galadima 4th Year
Student, Statistics with emphasis in Actuarial Science and minor in
Mathematics. , St Cloud, MN.
Mr.
Trevor Lynch, 3rd year Student, Political Science Major, History and
International Relations Minor, Maplewood, Minnesota
Mr.
Tyler Rittmaster, 3rd year Marketing Major, Bloomington, MN (studying abroad
spring semester 2008)
Mr.
Craig Barthel, 3rd year student, Political Science major with Public
Administration minor, Albertville, Minnesota
Mr. Birat Krishna Thapa, 1st Year
Student, Political Science Major with International Relations Minor, Saint
Cloud MN
Mr.
Derrek Lee Helmin, 3rd Year Student, Political Science and Economics Major,
Saint Cloud, MN
Ms. Diane Fournier, Graduate
Student Master of Science degree, specializing in Mathematics and Statistics
Education (fall semester only)
Student
technical consultant
Mr. Justin Rassier, 4th Year
Student, Computer Science Major, St. Joseph , Minnesota
Student Callers
After five or more hours of training and screening,
approximately 25 students from Political Science 195 classes (Introductory
American National Government) and taught by Drs. Frank and Kukoleca Hammes
completed the calling. The survey also employed several highly trained
paid callers who mainly focused on refusal conversion calls. Faculty directors monitored the calling
shifts. Student directors conducted both general training sessions and
one-on-one training sessions as well as monitoring all calling shifts.