EAS 380 Syllabus Fall 2009

EAS 380 Introduction to Forecasting - Fall 2009
Class Schedule	MTh 3:30-4:45 PM WSB 21
Instructor	Bob Weisman
Contact Information	Phone: (320) 308-3247
	Email: raweisman@stcloudstate.edu
	Office Hours - WSB 48
Schedule Notes (besides University Calendar)	No Class Days - Monday Sept. 28 Jewish Holiday of Yom Kippur Monday, Nov 9 Northern Plains Winter Storm Conference: (Monday and Tuesday)
	Semester Exams (tentative): Thursday, September 24 and Monday, October 26
	Final Exam: Thursday, December 17 3:45 - 6:15 PM
Prerequisite	EAS 260
Required Texts	Weather Forecasting Handbook, 5th Edition, Tim Vasquez, ISBN 0-9706840-2-9 (Book link) Weather Map Handbook, Tim Vasquez, ISBN 0-9706840-4-5 (Book link) Meteorology Today, 8th Edition, C. Donald Ahrens, ISBN 0-5343977-1-9 Cheaper prices may be available at http://www.directtextbook.com/
Recommended Text	Weather Forecasting: Rules, Techniques, and Procedures, George Eliot, ISBN 0-89641-171-0
Other Supplies Needed	Colored, erasable pencils Crafts Direct behind Space Aliens Restaurant on Sundial Drive Pen and Ink White-out Protractor Good, thin line plotting pen (black or blue).
Other Resources Needed	Valid and Activated HuskyNet ID To play SCSU Forecasting Contest (required by this course) To access class grades through Desire2Learn
Meteorology Program Objectives and Assessments	I.2. Students will synthesize meteorological information and present it in written form, following accepted meteorological publication format. In This Course: All Written Assignments Are: Due at the beginning of class Must be typed Must have proper English, grammar, and standard abbreviation (SI Units when indicated) Common Student Errors Not reading over work before turning it in. Not separating, with a space, values from units, except in the case of degrees Making up your own abbreviations.

Class Goals

Data and Analysis

Surface and Upper-Air Charts
- Knowledge and understanding of symbols and contours used on routine charts produced by the National Weather Service
Introduction to format and measuring errors in surface and upper-air raw observations
Finding surface fronts in real-time
- Identifying processes in three-dimensions that support the front

Forecasting

Introduction to computer-based forecasting tools and their limitations.
Introduction to the application of physical processes required to make a forecast.
- Use of Upper-Air, Sounding, and Surface, Satellite, and Radar Analyses to Identify Physical Processes in real-time

Key Ideas (see Class Page for more information)

Surface Station Identiers in the Northern Plains and adjacent areas of Canada
Reading and Understanding METAR Code
1. See Adaptations for Canada
Principles of Surface Map Analysis and Front Identification
1. See Surface Station Plotting Model for how to plot METARs on weather charts.
Reading and Understanding Upper-Air Code
Learning to Track Weather Systems in Four Dimensions
What Physical Processes Affect the Forecasting Precipitation and Temperature

Grading

Semester Exams (2)	30%
Plotting and Analysis Assignments**	35%
Final Exam	25%
Forecast Game Participation	10%

**Late class assignments are downgraded 10% per calendar day late. Late assignments are not accepted more than 5 days after the due date.

In recent semesters, the grading breakdown has been similar to that shown below. This curve is for general guidelines; it is not an iron-clad guarantee!

Grading Breakdown from Recent Semesters	Final Average	Final Grade
	>=95.0	A+
	88.0-94.9	A
	85.0-87.9	A-
	83.0-84.9	B+
	75.0-82.9	B
	73.0-74.9	B-
	71.0-72.9	C+
	64.0-70.9	C
	61.0-63.9	C-
	59.0-60.9	D+
	52.0-58.9	D
	50.0-51.9	D-
	<=49.9	F

FORECASTING IN THE GAME:

Entering forecasts
1. Forecast game rules are here.
2. Links that are useful to make a forecast are here.
3. Enter your forecast here. (note that you must register each semester before you can play)
You must participate on 60% of all SCSU class days in the St. Cloud forecasting game. You should also forecast on all class meeting days.
Do not wait until you "understand everything" to begin forecasting. This will be a semester of learning. Get your forecasts in somehow, some way. Read the handout on how to play the game. It's OK at the start to turn in a forecast you've hear somewhere else.
Learn to read computer forecasts from Eta MOS, GFS short-range MOS, and GFS extended-range MOS output, and how to decode hourly METAR observations. You will learn how to read the basic model output and observations. You can find the daily output from the computer forecasts at the NCEP MOS Site or the Texas A&M Weather Interface.

It's OK not to understand everything mentioned in class. Go back to Ahrens and look up some of these terms. There are simple explanations for some complicated ideas. Also, don't be afraid to ask questions. The only dumb question is the one that never gets asked, because then you never know the answer!

Last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2009 1:06 PM

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