EAS 485 Synoptic Meteorology

Personal Forecasting Handbook Assignment

Spring 2009 Due Date: Wednesday, April 1

Description

1. Goal
   1. Each time you put together a forecast for any atmospheric condition, you are applying some kind of atmospheric theory or limitations of that theory. The goal of this assignment is write them down in an organized way.
2. How to do it
   1. As you make forecasts and as we cover material during the semester, make a list of forecasting rules you encounter or use. These rules have to be valid to get any credit! Then, formalize it by doing the following.
• Example:
  • Rule for Marquette, MI: I consider the possibility of lake effect snow when the 850 mb temperature of the approaching/upstream air mass is at least 13°C colder than the Lake Superior surface temperature.
  • Justification: When the lapse rate in the lower troposphere is forced to be dry adiabatic by the cold air moving over the warmer water, this guarantees that convection will take place.
  • Figure: Show an example of this rule being applied correctly with the appropriate map. I would show an 850 mb chart with the cold 850 mb temperatures over the lake, the lake temperature, and some proof that it is snowing in the lee of the lakes.
2. During the semester, record at least 10 rules each for St. Cloud and Springfield, IL. There should be at least 5 rules for forecasting temperature and 5 rules for forecasting precipitation. There are no repeats allowed.
3. The Handbook should be:
   1. No more than 6 pages (double-spaced typed).
   2. Written in complete sentences with figures referenced as is done in an AMS journal article. There should also be figure captions for each figure. Use references for all information taken from another source (spelling, grammar, and format counts for 20% of the grade)

EAS 485 Home Page

EAS 485 Syllabus

Top of Handbook Page

Grading

 

3. Grading Rubric
   1. Maximum rules points: 280 pts
      1. Doing the "minimum" of 20 forecast rules, if done entirely correctly, will earn you a B grade on the rules part (200/280 possible forecast points). The writing score is additional.
      2. Going beyond the 20 rules will earn you extra points if each one is correct.
      3. Do not exceed 5 page limit!
   2. Each forecasting rule is worth a maximum of 10 points
      1. Does the rule actually work? 3 pts
      2. Theory Application 5 pts
         1. 0-1 pts Wrong theory justification
         2. 1.1-2.0 pts Theory oversimplified
         3. 2.1-4.4 pts Theory listed correctly with some minor errors
         4. 4.6-5.0 pts Theory entirely correct
      3. Documentation 2 pts
         1. 0-0.5 pts Figure does not show the correct chart to support the rule
         2. 0.6-1.2 pts Figure does show the correct chart, but the area highlighted doesn't show the rule correctly
         3. 1.3-1.6 pts Figure highlights the correct area
         4. 1.7- 2.0 pts Figure shows clearly the entire area showing the process taking place, has a proper legend, and attributes the source.
   3. Overall deductions:
      1. Not hitting your quotas
         1. having 10 rules for each station: -5 pts for each one short
         2. Not having at least 5 precipitation and 5 temperature rules: -2.5 pts for each one short.
      2. 20% (70 pts) of the final grade is for English.

Writing Score (70 points possible)	Rubric	General Description
	Poor (0-15 pts)	Hard to find a rule without spelling and grammar errors. (0 pts) Paper has to be rewritten with correct grammar and spelling.
	Fair (16-44 pts)	Enough spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors to make the paper difficult to read.
	Good (45-59 points)	Paper is relatively free of spelling, punctuation, and grammar errors. Discussion can be followed by the reader.
	Outstanding (60-70 Points)	Paper is easy to follow with nearly no grammatic errors.

3. So total paper score is 350 points (280 for the rules and 70 for the writing).

EAS 485 Home Page

EAS 485 Syllabus

Top of Handbook Page

Grading

 

Common Student Errors

1. This is a semester-long project, not a last week before it's due project
   
   1. Rushed work is easily identified
2. The forecast rule has to work. Identify the rules early in the semester and test them throughout to make sure that they work!
3. Use weather information in formats used by meteorologists, not lay people.
   1. Decoded information is often inaccurate.
   2. The maps should contain enough data to demonstrate your processes.
4. Uninterpreted computer forecast information doesn't work because there are no physical processes to support them.
5. Important: Leave time for thinking about dynamic and thermodynamic processes!
6. Leave time to read your paper out loud before turning it in! (Writing counts 20%!)

Sources of Data

1. Plotted and Analyzed Maps
   • NWS Storm Prediction Center Case Archive (Only for cases that produced severe weather since January 2000)
   • Plymouth State College (archived, but data can be missing; can be hard to read; recent years are missing many upper-air stations)
   • UCAR Image Achive (all maps that are shown in real time on the regular UCAR Web Site back to 1997)
   • University of Wyoming Upper Air and Sounding Menu
2. Calculations
   • Plymouth State College (archived, but data can be missing)
   • The Storm Machine from Northern Illinois University (calculations from both current and model data, but only current data)
3. Other Sources from Synoptic/Forecasting Handbook

Due Date: EAS 4 85 Spring 2009 Due Date: Wednesday, April 1 3 PM

Last updated: Wednesday 07-Jan-2009 10:26 AM

For questions, contact Bob Weisman