FALL 2002 General Political Questions

[LAST REVISED 10/31/02]

BEST IF VIEWED WITH INTERNET EXPLORER

This section of the report contains several questions of a general political nature. It is common practice for us to annually ask these questions. The questions include a general question on the direction of state, main problem Minnesotans see facing the state and which political party may be in the best position to fix that problem. We have also included our annual “Feeling Thermometer” in this section of the report.

In addition to display of data from this year’s survey, we have include relevant from our statewide surveys conducted in November 2001 and October 2000. The sample parameters of the 2001 and 2000 survey are roughly the same as the 2002 survey. Survey Sampling, Inc. constructed the sample of Minnesota adults. The sample was constructed using the random digit dialing method. In 2001, the sample size was 611, with a margin of error of 3.9. In 2000, the sample size was 629, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent. The cooperation rate for the 2001 survey was 56% while cooperation rate for the 2000 survey was 58 percent. The demographics of the 2001 and 2000 surveys matched the state and, therefore, we assert the data between the three surveys is comparable.

More extended time series reports from previous SCSU Survey research findings regarding many of these general political questions are available on the SCSU Survey web page. Please enter http://web.stcloudstate.edu/scussurvey and follow the links.

Table 2: Direction of the State
“Do you think things in the State of Minnesota are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?”
	2000		2001		2002
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Right Direction	436	70	344	56	232	38
Neutral	61	10	66	11	83	14
Wrong Track	102	16	165	27	260	42
Don’t Know	27	4	35	6	35	6
Total	626	100%	610	100%	610	100%

Figure 1: Direction of the State

Table 3: Problems Facing the State of Minnesota
“What do you think is the single most important problem facing the State of Minnesota today?”
	2000		2001		2002
RESPONSE	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT
Abortion	9	1	8	1	8	1
Agriculture-General	4	1	3	0	3	0
Corporate Leaders/ Stocks-Bonds	NA	NA	NA	NA	3	0
Budget/Surplus	6	1	16	2	77	14
Chemical/Bio. Hazard	2	0	1	0	0	0
Crime/Gangs/Violence	41	7	9	1	9	2
Drug Use	17	3	4	0	11	2
Economic Issues/ Jobs/Wages	12	2	45	7	79	13
Education	128	21	150	25	142	23
Environmental Issues	16	3	3	0	12	2
Family Issues	2	0	3	0	2	0
Gambling	1	0	2	0	1	0
Greed/selfishness	NA	NA	NA	NA	4	0
Health Issues/ Insurance-	41	7	14	2	17	3
Immigration	NA	NA	NA	NA	4	0
Moral/Religious Issues	13	2	44	7	3	0
Politics/Politicians	10	2	9	1	26	4
Poverty/ Poor/ Housing	5	1	6	1	9	2
Roads/Highways	19	3	18	3	37	7
Utility Prices, Gas, Energy	2	0	14	2	0	0
Senior Issues/ Elderly	5	1	3	0	8	1
Sports-General	N/A	N/A	12	2	0	0
Jesse Ventura	9	1	0	0	15	3
Taxes	112	18	69	11	58	10
Terrorism	N/A	N/A	1	0	4	0
Twins Going	N/A	N/A	17	3	2	0
Welfare Issues, Waste, Fraud	14	2	76	12	17	3
Prescription Drugs	4	1	0	0	6	1
Other/Multiple	74	12	6	1	14	2
Don’t Know	65	10	7	1	40	7
Total	625	100%	611	100%	613	100%

Figure 2: Top 10 Problems Affecting State

Table 4: Which Party Can Better Fix Problems
“Which political party, if any, do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you have just mentioned- the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the Independence Party, or the Reform Party?”
	2000		2001		2002
RESPONSE	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT
Republican	174	27	154	30	166	27
Democratic	152	28	165	32	157	26
Reform (2000/1) Green (2002)	19	4	15	3	16	3
Independence Party	63	12	41	8	58	10
Other - Volunteered	11	2	12	2	7	1
Same – Volunteered	N/A	N/A	6	1	7	1
Neither	58	11	46	9	73	12
Don’t Know	89	16	79	15	118	20
Total	539	100%	518	100%	602	100%

Figure 3: Which Party Can Better Fix Problems

Table 5: Overall Rating of Jesse Ventura as Governor
“How would you rate the overall performance of Jesse Ventura as Governor; excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001		2002
RESPONSE	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT
Excellent	77	12	68	11	50	8
Pretty Good	318	51	200	33	189	31
Only Fair	175	28	206	34	219	36
Poor	51	8	127	21	145	24
Don’t Know	6	1	9	1	7	1
Total	627	100%	610	100%	610	100%

Figure 4: Overall Rating of Jesse Ventura as Governor

Table 6: Feeling Thermometer
“Please think of a thermometer that has a range of 0 to 100 degrees. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news. Ratings on the thermometer between 50 and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 and 50 mean that you do not feel too favorable toward the person. If we come to a person whose name you don’t recognize, you don’t need to rate that person. Just tell me and we will move on to the next one. If you do recognize the name, but do not feel particularly warm or cold toward the person, you would rate that person at the 50 degree mark.” (Interviewers do not tell the respondent who the person is or any information about the person.)
Person	Mean Response 2001	Freq./Pct. Don’t Know/ Can’t Judge 2001	Mean Response 2002	Freq./Pct. Don’t Know/ Can’t Judge 2002
George W. Bush	70	9-1%	60	7-2%
Mike Hatch	NA	NA	56	246-41%
Roger Moe	NA	NA	47	153-26%
Paul Wellstone	52	37-6%	47	24-13%
Tim Penny	NA	NA	51	161-27%
Tim Pawlenty	54	350-58%	50	178-30%
Ken Pentel	NA	NA	43	403-67%
Jesse Ventura	49	6-1%	47	7-2%
Norm Coleman	58	62-10%	53	30-6%
Jim Moore	NA	NA	45	485-80%
Mark Dayton	56	60-10%	50	105-19%
Torii Hunter	NA	NA	70	291-49%
Randy Moss	NA	NA	30	63-10%
Martha Stewart	NA	NA	31	50-10%
Kenneth Lay	NA	NA	21	361-60%
Ray Tricomo	NA	NA	43	509-84%
As noted earlier, we did not ask about Senator Wellstone on Sunday, October 27, thus the sample size for his score this year is 51 less than for the other individuals.

In the 2000 statewide survey, we also asked about Senator Wellstone, who received a mean score of 51, Governor Ventura who received a 60, Mayor Coleman who received a 55, Presidential Candidate George W. Bush who received a 52 and Senate candidate Mark Dayton, who received a mean score of 52.

Questions displayed in tables 7, 8, and 9 are used to construct a profile of a “likely voter”. We defined a likely voter as someone who is or will probably register to vote, voted in the 2000 presidential election or had a good reason to not vote and either are certain or are probably going to vote in the November 2002 statewide elections.

Table 7: Registered to Vote
“Are you presently registered to vote or do you plan to register to vote in the area in which you are now living?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Yes-Is registered or plan to register	578	94
No	31	5
Don’t Know	4	1
Total	613	100%

Table 8: Vote in 2000 Presidential Election
“Did you get a chance to vote in the 2000 election for President between George W. Bush, Al Gore and Ralph Nadar?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Yes	522	85
No-But had good reason	33	5
No	55	9
Don’t Know	3	1
Total	613	100%

Table 9: Chances of Voting this November
“What are the chances of your voting in next month’s election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are you not sure yet or don’t you think you will vote?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Certain	483	78
Probably vote	61	10
Not sure yet	28	5
Won’t vote	37	6
Don’t Know	4	1
Total	613	100%

Table 10: Politics Since 9-11
“Since the September 11^th attacks, do you feel more inclined, less inclined, or has 9-11 not changed your inclination to participate in governmental elections?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
More Inclined	130	21
Less Inclined	7	1
No Change Anticipated	469	77
Don’t Know	6	1
Total	612	100%

Figure 5: Politics Since 9-11

Table 11: Party Identification
“Do you usually consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, Reform Party member, Minnesota Independence Party member, a member of another party, or are you an independent who is not a member of any party?” (If Democrat or Republican or Reform of Independence) “Would you say that you always vote Dmocrat/Republican/Reform/Indepence or do you someties vote for a person of another party?” (If Independent) “Although you are an independent, do you usually consider yourself to be closer to the Democrats, Republicans, the Reform Party of the Independence Party?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Always Votes Democratic	69	11
Democrat Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	92	15
Always Votes Republican	82	13
Republican Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	64	10
Always Votes Green	2	0
Green Party Member Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	4	1
Always Votes Independence	11	2
Independence Party Member Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	27	4
Independent Closer to Democrats	67	11
Independent Closer to Republicans	46	8
Independent Closer to Reform Party (2001) Green (2002)	7	1
Independent Closer to Independence Party	33	6
Other	31	6
Apolitical	31	6
Don’t Know	38	6
Total	604	100%

In 2001, the SCSU Survey found that DFL always, sometimes and independent but closer to DFL identifier was 43%, Republican 33% and Independence 11%.

Figure 6: Party Identification[1]

v. 2002 Election “Horse-Race” Questions

Table 12: Control of Minnesota Legislature
“Looking ahead to next November’s election in which all members of the Minnesota legislature will be elected, right now the Republicans control the Minnesota House while the Democrats control the Minnesota Senate. Which of the following would you like to see happen- keep control the way it is now, the Republicans gain control of both Houses, the Democrats gain control of both Houses, another party such as the Reform Party of Independence Party gain control, or haven’t you thought much about this issue?”
	2001		2002
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Keep Divided Control	152	25	110	18
Republican Control	111	18	139	23
Democratic Control	116	19	122	20
Another Party Controls	22	4	59	10
Haven’t Thought Much About	160	26	123	20
Other- Volunteered	11	3	10	2
Don’t Know	31	5	43	7
Total	603	100%	606	100%

Figure 7: Control of Minnesota Legislature

Table 13: 2002 Minnesota Governor’s Election All Respondents and Likely Voter
“If the election for Minnesota Governor’s race were being held today, would you vote for Roger Moe, the Democrat candidate, Tim Penny, the Independence Party candidate, Tim Pawlenty, the Republican candidate, or Ken Pentel, the Green Party candidate or a candidate of another party? (If the respondent is not sure) “Although you are not sure, would you say you are leaning more toward Moe, Penny, Pawlenty, or Pentel or a candidate of another party?”
	All Respondents		Likely Voters
RESPONSE	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT
Definitely Moe	115	19	105	20
Leaning Moe	36	6	33	7
Definitely Penny	96	16	85	17
Leaning Penny	54	9	44	9
Definitely Pawlenty	127	21	114	22
Leaning Pawlenty	44	8	41	8
Definitely Pentel	9	2	7	1
Leaning Pentel	6	1	4	1
Other	10	2	4	1
Don’t Know	91	16	68	14
Total	588	100%	505	100%

Figure 8: 2002 Minnesota Governor’s Election

All Respondents and Likely Voter Table 14: Multiple Response Reasons for Governor Candidate Choice
“Why are you going to vote for this person?” (Interviewer probes for answer, but does not read responses.)
RESPONSE	MOE FREQ.	penny FREQ.	Pawlenty Freq.	Pentel Freq.	TOTAL FREQ.	PERCENT OF ALL RESPONSES
Abortion Position	1	0	9	0	10	2%
Budget Deficit Position	2	3	3	0	8	1%
Crime Position	1	0	0	0	1	0%
Don’t Like Opponent	3	13	2	0	18	3%
Education Position	25	7	4	0	36	6%
Environment Position	2	0	0	2	4	1%
Good Track Record- Exp.	13	8	2	0	23	4%
Gun/Hunting Position	0	2	2	0	4	1%
Health Care Position	2	1	1	0	4	1%
Like Candidate’s Character	23	39	33	1	96	15%
Like Candidate as a Person	19	38	26	1	84	13%
No Particular Reason	7	9	1	2	19	3%
Not a Typical Candidate	2	8	2	0	14	2%
Position on Terrorism	4	4	7	4	15	2%
Same Political Ideology	25	18	37	3	84	13%
Same Political Party	31	14	38	0	86	14%
Senior Issue Position	5	3	1	0	9	1%
Social Security Position	1	1	2	0	4	1%
Somebody Different	2	6	4	2	14	2%
Tax Position	3	4	10	0	17	3%
Time for a Change	3	11	3	2	19	3%
Other	10	15	14	1	42	7%
Don’t Know	4	5	12	2	29	5%
Total	148	149	170	15	639	100%

Table 15: 2002 Minnesota Senate Race
“If the November 2002 election for U.S. Senate were being held today would you vote for Norm Coleman, the possible Republican candidate or Paul Wellstone, the Democrat or a candidate of another party?” (If the respondent is not sure) “Although you are not sure, would you say you are leaning more toward Coleman, Wellstone or a candidate of another party?”
			2002
	2001		All RESPONDENT		LIKELY VOTERS
RESPONSE	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT	FREQ.	PERCENT
Definitely Coleman	198	33	188	35	172	37
Leaning Coleman	55	9	45	8	32	7
Definitely Wellstone	222	37	163	30	146	32
Leaning Wellstone	38	6