General Political Questions

POLITICAL PARTICIAPTION SECTION

REPORTS AND PRESS RELEASES

SCSU FALL 2001 SURVEY

General Political Questions [LAST REVISED 11/26/01]

This section of the report contains several questions of a general political nature. It is common practice for us to annually ask these questions. The questions include a general question on the direction of state, main problem Minnesotans see facing the state and which political party may be in the best position to fix that problem. We have also included our annual “Feeling Thermometer” in this section of the report.

Displayed in each table is data from this year’s survey and from the statewide survey conducted in October 2000. The sample parameters of the 2000 survey are roughly the same as the 2001 survey. Survey Sampling, Inc. constructed the sample of Minnesota adults. The sample was constructed using the random digit dialing method. In 2000, the sample size was 629, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent. The cooperation rate for the 2000 survey was 58 percent. The demographics of the 2000 survey matched the state and weighting was unnecessary. Thus, we assert the data between the two surveys is comparable.

Table 3: Direction of the State
“Do you think things in the State of Minnesota are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Right Direction	436	70	344	56
Neutral	61	10	66	11
Wrong Track	102	16	165	27
Don’t Know	27	4	35	6
Total	626	100%	610	100%

An examination of table 3 shows a large shift in public opinion. In 2000, 70 percent of Minnesotans agreed the state was headed in the right direction and only 16 percent saw the state headed on the wrong track. In 2001, however, only 56 percent see the state headed in the right direction and more than one quarter of Minnesotans see the state on the wrong track. Since we surveyed Minnesotans in 2000, a number of political, social and economic changes have occurred. Certainly, terrorism on American soil is now a reality. Unemployment is increasing. The state is facing a budget shortfall this year. The majority of state employees struck for better pay and health care. The future of the Minnesota Twins is no longer clear.

Next, we asked respondents what problems they see facing Minnesota today. Table 4 shows that twice the number of Minnesotans today see the state budget as a problem compared to 2000. Four times the number of Minnesotans see economic issues and jobs, as well as moral and religious issues as important today compared to last year. Six times the number of Minnesotans noted welfare and housing as the most important problem facing Minnesota today compared to 2000. This data spike is due to categorization of various responses, all of which have something to do with poverty. Indeed, many of the respondents said welfare or inadequacy of affordable housing, but others responded with issues such as homelessness and unemployment (we view it somewhat different as “economic issues”. Given the recognition of these problems, the SCSU Survey will develop new and additional categories to allow better separation of the various “welfare-type” problems. The Minnesota Twins/Stadium is seen as a problem today, but not one respondent in 2000 noted sports related issues as a problem facing the state. This year, compare to last, fewer Minnesotans view environment or health care as the most important issue facing the state. In both years, education leads as the number one problem facing the state of Minnesota. Twenty one percent of Minnesotans noted that education was the most important problem facing the state in 2000. In 2001, that percentage has grown to 25 percent. We speculate that education has taken on an increased importance in the minds of many Minnesotans since approximately one-half of Minnesota school districts asked voters to approve a special funding levy this year.

Table 4: Problems Facing the State of Minnesota
“What do you think is the single most important problem facing the State of Minnesota today?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Abortion	9	1	8	1
Agriculture-General	4	1	3	0
Agriculture- Probs./Farmers	9	1	1	0
Budget/Surplus	6	1	16	2
Chemical/Bio. Hazard	2	0	1	0
Crime/Gangs/Violence	41	7	9	1
Drug Use	17	3	4	0
Economic Issues/Jobs/Wages	12	2	45	7
Education	128	21	150	25
Environmental Issues	16	3	3	0
Family Issues	2	0	3	0
Gambling	1	0	2	0
Health Issues/Insurance-	41	7	14	2
Issue Relating to Indians	1	0	1	0
Moral Issues	11	2	38	6
Religious Issues	2	0	6	1
Politics/Politicians	10	2	9	1
Poverty/ Poor	5	1	6	1
Roads/Highways	19	3	18	3
Utility Prices, Gas, Energy	2	0	14	2
Senior Issues/ Elderly	5	1	3	0
Sports	N/A	N/A	12	2
Jesse Ventura	9	1	0	0
Taxes	112	18	69	11
Terrorism	N/A	N/A	1	0
Twins Going	N/A	N/A	17	3
Welfare Issues, Waste, Fraud	14	2	76	12
Prescription Drugs	4	1	0	0
Other	74	12	6	1
No Problem Facing State	4	1	0	0
Don’t Know	65	10	7	1
Total	625	100%	611	100%

The survey than asked respondents to indicate which party they felt could do a better job in taking care of the issue they mentioned in the previous question. An examination of table 5 shows little change from 2000 to 2001 in terms of whether the Republicans or the Democrats are better equipped to respond to the problem previously identified. Although not significant, we found a smaller percentage of Minnesotans today indicating that either the Reform Party or the Independence Party is better able today to respond to the previously identified problem than in 2000. Where support for the Reform Party and the Independence Party support has decreased, we find a proportional increase in support for both the Republican and Democratic Parties. This is an important trend to monitor to see if Minnesota is beginning to end its flirtation with the Reform and Independence Parties.

Table 5: Which Party Can Better Fix Problems
“Which political party, if any, do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you have just mentioned- the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the Independence Party, or the Reform Party?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Republican	174	27	154	30
Democratic	152	28	165	32
Reform	19	4	15	3
Independence Party	63	12	41	8
Other - Volunteered	11	2	12	2
Same – Volunteered	N/A	N/A	6	1
Neither	58	11	46	9
Don’t Know	89	16	79	15
Total	539	100%	518	100%

The next question is the SCSU Survey’s Feeling Thermometer used to annually gauge recognition and attitude toward various public figures. This is our yearly adaptation of the University of Michigan’s National Election Study Feeling Thermometer in which respondents rate their feelings on a scale of 0-100. A rating of 50-100 means the respondent feels warm and favorable, whereas below 50 indicates and unfavorable rating. The “degree rating” is an arithmetic mean, not a percentage, of those respondents who gave a response. Responses of don’t know, can’t judge or refused are not included in the mean. The don’t know and can’t judge responses are an indication of name recognition, and it is also a measure of validity. For example, approximately one percent of all respondents indicated they did not recognize or are unable to judge their feelings toward Governor Jesse Ventura and President George W. Bush while 58 percent of the respondents did not recognize or was unable to judge their feelings toward State Auditor Judi Dutcher. These patterns would not exist if respondents were merely guessing.

In terms of the pairing of Becky Lourey and Judi Dutcher in a potential 2002 DFL gubernatorial primary, fewer Minnesotans recognize Becky Lourey (114 or 19 percent) compared to 254 or 42 percent who recognize Judi Dutcher. Of those that recognize the two candidates, we find minimal difference in terms of respondent warmth between State Senator Lourey (49 mean degrees) and State Auditor Dutcher (51 mean degrees). The data offers a clear conclusion. Both candidates need to introduce themselves to Minnesota, especially Senator Lourey.

In terms of the potential pairing of Tim Pawlenty and Brian Sullivan in the hypothetical 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary contest, about twice the number of Minnesotans know who is Minnesota House Majority Leader Tim Pawlenty (254 respondents or 43 percent) compared to Brian Sullivan (138 respondents or 23 percent). Of those that do know the two candidates, Minnesotans are warmer toward Tim Pawlenty (54 mean degrees) than they are toward Brian Sullivan (49 mean degrees). Perhaps this finding explains the recent radio ads for Brian Sullivan’s candidacy.

In terms of the pairing of St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman and Senator Paul Wellstone in next year’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Senator Wellstone is in trouble. About the same number of Minnesotans recognize both candidates, but more are warmer toward Norm Coleman (58 degrees) than Senator Wellstone (52 degrees). Table 9 shows the pairing of Senator Wellstone and Mayor Coleman as a statistical dead heat.

Although the primary discussion of Governor Ventura is later in the report, the data in table 6 shows that Minnesotans are not nearly as warm toward him (49 mean degrees) as they were in 2000 (60 mean degrees). His temperature reading is now similar to what we found (46 mean degrees) for President Clinton in 2000. Terry Ventura’s temperature reading, however, remains high.

Finally, perhaps the most important finding is the temperature reading we obtained for President George W. Bush. During the 2000 campaign, he received a mean degree temperature of 52 and lost the race in Minnesota to Al Gore. Today, President Bush’s mean temperature reading is 70 degrees.

Table 6: Feeling Thermometer
“Please think of a thermometer that has a range of 0 to 100 degrees. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news. Ratings on the thermometer between 50 and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 and 50 mean that you do not feel too favorable toward the person. If we come to a person whose name you don’t recognize, you don’t need to rate that person. Just tell me and we will move on to the next one. If you do recognize the name, but do not feel particularly warm or cold toward the person, you would rate that person at the 50 degree mark.” (Interviewers do not tell the respondent who the person is or any information about the person.)
Person	Mean Response 2000	Mean Response 2001	Freq./Pct. “Recognized” Responses 2001	Freq./Pct. of Don’t Know/ Can’t Judge 2001
Bill Clinton	46	N/A	N/A	N/A
Judi Dutcher	N/A	51	254/42%	353/58%
Becky Lourey	N/A	49	114/19%	491/81%
Tim Pawlenty	N/A	54	254/42%	350/58%
Brian Sullivan	N/A	49	138/23%	466/77%
Rod Grams	46	N/A	N/A	N/A
Paul Wellstone	51	52	570/94%	37/6%
Terry Ventura	62	59	543/90%	61/10%
Al Gore	49	N/A	N/A	N/A
Pat Buchanan	31	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jesse Ventura	60	49	601/99%	6/1%
Norm Coleman	55	58	543/90%	62/10%
George W. Bush	52	70	598/99%	9/1%
Laura Bush	N/A	69	547/91%	57/9%
Mark Dayton	52	56	546/90%	60/10%
James Gibson	48	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ralph Nader	49	N/A	N/A	N/A
Total/Average	50	60	N/A	N/A

2002 Election “Horse-Race” Questions

The next section of questions focuses on upcoming elections. The first question, appearing in table 7, is an annual question we ask to gauge the relative strength of the political parties as they represent Minnesota in the U.S. Congress. The data does not indicate to us that we would expect any near-future change of party representation in Congress. The percentage of respondents who might vote for a Democratic Party candidate relative to a Republican Party candidate increased by a mere three percentage points since last year but the difference is within the survey’s margin of error.

Table 7: Party Choice in U.S. Congressional Races
“If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today and you could choose between a Democratic candidate, a Republican candidate, a Reform Party candidate, and Independence Party candidate,, or a candidate who belongs to some other party, which party’s candidate would you vote for?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Democrat	206	34	220	37
Republican	179	30	169	28
Reform	16	3	14	2
Independence Party	50	8	40	7
Other	30	5	35	6
Don’t Know	125	21	121	2
Total	606	100%	599	100%

We often find consistent opinion among respondents from question to question. In some cases, if the responses were not consistent between questions, we would wonder if the questions are valid and reliable. As we expected, we find response consistency between table 7 and table 8. That is, Minnesotans seem satisfied with the party composition in the Minnesota Legislature and if the election were held today, Minnesotans would vote similar to how they previously voted and the party composition of the legislature would not change.

Table 8: Control of Minnesota Legislature
“Looking ahead to next November’s election in which all members of the Minnesota legislature will be elected, right now the Republicans control the Minnesota House while the Democrats control the Minnesota Senate. Which of the following would you like to see happen- keep control the way it is now, the Republicans gain control of both Houses, the Democrats gain control of both Houses, another party such as the Reform Party of Independence Party gain control, or haven’t you thought much about this issue?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Keep Divided Control	144	23	152	25
Republican Control	115	18	111	18
Democratic Control	108	17	116	19
Another Party Controls	35	6	22	4
Haven’t Thought Much About	161	26	160	26
Other- Volunteered	12	2	11	2
Don’t Know	50	8	31	5
Total	625	100%	603	100%

The next series of questions relate to next year’s Minnesota U.S. Senate race and the gubernatorial election. Regarding the 2002 U.S. Senate race, unless additional candidates enter the election, it looks to be a match between DFL incumbent Paul Wellstone and Republican challenger Norm Coleman. We asked Minnesotans, if the election were held today, would they vote for Norm Coleman or Paul Wellstone. As table 9 shows, at this time the race is a toss-up. Forty two percent of the respondents indicated that they are either definitely or leaning toward voting for Norm Coleman whereas 43 percent noted they are definitely or leaning toward voting for Senator Wellstone.

Table 9: 2002 Minnesota Senate Race All Respondents
“If the November 2002 election for U.S. Senate were being held today would you vote for Norm Coleman, the possible Republican candidate or Paul Wellstone, the Democrat or a candidate of another party?” (If the respondent is not sure) “Although you are not sure, would you say you are leaning more toward Coleman, Wellstone or a candidate of another party?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Definitely Coleman	198	33
Leaning Coleman	55	9
Definitely Wellstone	222	37
Leaning Wellstone	38	6
Other	37	6
Won’t Vote	9	1
Don’t Know	50	8
Total	609	100%

We asked the typical follow-up question of our respondents regarding why they might cast a ballot for either Norm Coleman or Senator Wellstone. Table 10 was constructed as a cross tabulation of responses. An examination of table 10 shows that six, possibly seven issues have surfaced thus far in the contest of why Minnesotans are already supporting the candidates. Respondents were allowed to identify as many reasons as they thought relevant. The interviewers did not read possible reasons to support the candidates but did probe for answers.

Mayor Coleman’s supporters are attracted to him because of his position on taxes and budgetary matters. In addition, Mayor Coleman’s supporters like him because they do not like Senator Wellstone. At the same time, Senator Wellstone’s supporters like him because of his position on education. You might recall (see table 3), education was the most important problem facing the state of Minnesota according to a plurality of respondents. Supporters of both Coleman and Wellstone like their respective candidates because of their professional track records. Both candidates are liked by their supporters because of their character and because they are simply liked as a person. Supporters of both candidates like their respective candidates because of political ideology and political party. In presidential elections, party and ideology explain a significant amount of vote choice. Far second is candidate related issues. As you can see from table 10, voters in senate races are far more likely to cast their ballots based on an evaluation of candidate background and personality than due to party affiliation or ideology of the candidate. Although the other response category contains a rather high number of responses, the responses proportionally mirror those in existing categories but they are lengthy responses or are responses with two answers (such as: Coleman has a level head and he’s very bipartisan) to the question. The interviewers felt these responses were best placed in the other category.

Table 10: Multiple Response Reasons for Senate Candidate Choice
“Why are you going to vote for this person?” (Interviewer probes for answer, but does not read responses.)
RESPONSE	COLEMAN FREQUENCY	WELLSTONE FREQUENCY	TOTAL FREQUENCY	PERCENT OF ALL RESPONSES
Abortion Position	3	2	5	1
Budget Surplus Position	4	2	6	1
Crime Position	1	0	1	0
Don’t Like Opponent	31	9	40	6
Education Position	4	13	17	3
Environment Position	2	1	3	0
Good Track Record- Exp.	25	36	61	10
Gun/Hunting Position	0	1	1	0
Health Care Position	2	0	2	0
Like Candidate’s Character	65	71	136	22
Like Candidate as a Person	44	55	99	16
No Particular Reason	10	4	14	2
Not a Typical Candidate	1	3	4	1
Position on Terrorism	2	0	2	0
Same Political Ideology	29	30	59	9
Same Political Party	34	43	77	12
Senior Issue Position	0	1	1	0
Social Security Position	0	1	1	0
Somebody Different	6	3	9	1
Taxes	4	0	4	1
Time for a Change	2	2	4	1
Other	36	46	82	13
Total	305	323	628	100%

A standard question asked in a political opinion survey is party identification. Table 11 shows the current trend of how Minnesotans vote. We can easily see the plurality of Minnesotans remain DFLers and more than one-quarter of Minnesotans are Republicans. About seven percent are Independence Party voters, who have shifted from the Reform Party and 17 percent independent voters but tend to vote for DFL, Republican and Independence Party candidates. We asked this question to monitor any trends in party identification in Minnesota, but to also obtain a sub-sample of Republican and Democratic Party voters to ask them how they might vote in a primary election next year to pick their party’s gubernatorial nominee.

Table 11: Party Identification
“Do you usually consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, Reform Party member, Minnesota Independence Party member, a member of another party, or are you an independent who is not a member of any party?” (If Democrat or Republican or Reform of Independence) “Would you say that you always vote Dmocrat/Republican/Reform/Indepence or do you someties vote for a person of another party?” (If Independent) “Although you are an independent, do you usually consider yourself to be closer to the Democrats, Republicans, the Reform Party of the Independence Party?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Always Votes Democratic	103	17
Democrat Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	116	19
Always Votes Republican	73	12
Republican Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	95	16
Always Votes Reform	1	0
Reform Party Member Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	4	1
Always Votes Independence	12	2
Independence Party Member Who Sometimes Votes for Another Party	28	5
Independent Closer to Democrats	43	7
Independent Closer to Republicans	31	5
Independent Closer to Reform Party	8	1
Independent Closer to Independence Party	26	4
Other	27	5
Apolitical	6	1
Don’t Know	29	5
Total	602	100%

Respondents who indicated they always vote Republican or are Republican voters who sometimes vote for another party were asked a hypothetical question of who they might vote for, Brian Sullivan or Tim Pawlenty, for governor. These candidates were chosen for inclusion, over others, simply because both have announced their intention to seek their party’s nomination for governor. Although the Republican Party holds an endorsement convention and both candidates have indicated they will adhere to the results of the convention and not challenge each other in a subsequent primary election, we asked potential Republican Party primary voters to register their preference in a hypothetical primary election match-up. Only respondents who indicated they always vote Republican or are Republican voters who sometimes vote for another party are included in this analysis because, it is these voters who are most likely to vote in a Republican primary election.

Table 12 shows that House Majority Leader Tim Pawlenty has a solid lead over his opponent Brian Sullivan. This finding may change as the election season proceeds and the 62 percent of respondents who could not pick between the two candidates decide which of the two candidates they prefer to represent their party in the 2002 gubernatorial election. Caution should be exercised if conclusions are reached from this data for several reasons. One, only 167 respondents are included in the sub-sample and the margin of error is very high. Two, only 60 respondents indicated they are prepared today to support either Brian Sullivan or Tim Pawlenty.

Table 12: Republican Party Governor Primary Horse Race
“Republicans may have a primary to determine their candidate for Governor. If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tim Pawlenty or Brian Sullivan? If not sure, do you lean more toward Brian Sullivan or Tim Pawlenty?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Definitely Sullivan	18	11
Leaning Sullivan	6	4
Definitely Pawlenty	24	14
Leaning Pawlenty	12	7
Other	2	1
Won’t Vote in Primary	1	1
Don’t Know	104	62
Total	167	100

Respondents who indicated they always vote Democratic or are Democratic voters (see table 11) who sometimes vote for another party were asked a hypothetical question of who they might vote for, Judi Dutcher or Becky Lourey, for governor. These candidates were chosen for inclusion, over others, simply because either they had formally announced (Judi Dutcher) or had said they were going to formally announce (Becky Lourey) their intention any day to seek their party’s nomination for governor. Although, Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch and Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe are often mentioned as possible entrants to the nomination battle, neither individual had publicly indicated strong intentions to run thus they were not included in the question. Although the Democratic Party holds an endorsement convention and both candidates may adhere to the results of the convention and not challenge each other in a subsequent primary election, we asked potential Democratic Party primary voters to register their preference in a hypothetical primary election match-up. Only respondents who indicated they always vote Democratic or are Democratic voters who sometimes vote for another party are included in this analysis because, it is these voters who are most likely to vote in a Democratic primary election.

Table 13 shows that almost three times the number of likely Democratic Party primary voter currently supports the candidacy of Judi Dutcher over her challenger Becky Lourey. Similar to the Republican Party, a large number of voters are undecided (57 percent don’t know responses), thus the race is far from over and it is entirely possible for Becky Lourey to overtake the current lead Judi Dutcher has in capturing the nomination. Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of this data since the sub-sample only consists of 217 respondents.

Table 13: Democratic Party Governor Primary Horse Race
“Democratics may have a primary to determine their candidate for Governor. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Becky Lourey or Judi Dutcher? If not sure, do you lean more toward Brian Sullivan or Tim Pawlenty?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Definitely Lourey	12	6
Leaning Lourey	10	5
Definitely Dutcher	43	20
Leaning Dutcher	20	9
Other	4	2
Won’t Vote in Primary	2	1
Don’t Know	126	57
Total	217	100%

Indicators of Jesse Ventura’s Performance as Governor of Minnesota

Is there one person who personifies a state today? What political position is the most powerful in a state today? Whom does the public expect to lead the legislature and the bureaucracy? Who is the most influential person in today’s state government? The answer to all these questions is the state governor. The contemporary governor fills a long roster of roles or jobs. Some of these include executive, lawmaker, commander in chief, diplomat and political leader. This section of the report examines how Minnesotans view or evaluate Governor Ventura performance of these roles.

It is common practice to combine excellent and pretty-good categories into a single favorable category and combine the only fair and poor categories into a single unfavorable category. The table do not combine response categories but the narrative does.

The first specific role investigated is Chief Legislator. An examination of Table 2 shows that 40 percent of the 2001 respondents evaluate Governor Ventura’s performance as either excellent or pretty-good. Compared to 2000, this represents a drop of 19 percent. Jesse Ventura’s favorable rating as leader of the legislature in 2000 was 59 percent. The comparison of the performance data from 2000 to 2001 shows that a solid eight or nine percent of Minnesotans are of the opinion that their governor is performing his role of legislative leader in an excellent fashion. At the same time, the comparison of the 2000 and 2001 data also shows that two and one-half times the number of Minnesotans in 2001 (24 percent) compared to 2000 (ten percent) is of the opinion that their governor is performing his job as leader of the legislature poorly. One year ago, about the same number of Minnesotans evaluated Governor Ventura’s performance as chief legislator as excellent and poor. This year, however, three times the number of Minnesotans is of the opinion that their governor’s performance as chief legislator is poor compared to those that are of the opinion his performance is excellent.

Table 14: Governor’s Role as Chief Legislator
“One role is chief legislator, which is the ability and success in initiating legislative programs, working with the state legislature, and signing or vetoing bills sent them by the legislature. Would you rate Governor Ventura’s performance as chief legislator as excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	57	9	49	8
Pretty Good	309	50	198	32
Only Fair	171	27	196	32
Poor	61	10	143	24
Don’t Know	26	4	23	4
Total	624	100%	609	100%

The data clearly suggests the average Minnesotan is not as satisfied with the job Governor Ventura is doing leading the legislature as we found in 2000. Unfortunately, follow up was not possible with the respondents to inquire why their evaluation of Ventura’s performance has eroded. Tables 13-17 shows that of the five roles, Ventura’s second lowest rating is as chief legislator.

The second role investigated is Chief Executive. Similar to Governor Ventura as Minnesota’s chief legislator, Minnesotans rating of Ventura’s performance as the chief executive of Minnesota has eroded from 2000. In 2000, 61 percent evaluated Ventura’s performance as chief executive as favorable. Governor Ventura’s favorable rating as chief executive today is down by 17 percent. Similar to the ratings for chief legislature, Jesse Ventura has maintained a solid 10 to eleven percent excellent performance rating for both 2000 and 2001 among Minnesotans. This year, however, 22 percent (compared to seven percent in 2000) of Minnesotans are of the opinion their governor performs his role as CEO of the state poorly.

Table 15: Governor’s Role as Chief Executive
“Another role is chief executive, which is the ability and success in coordinating the state’s bureaucracy, overseeing the preparation of the state’s budget, and supervising major state programs. Would you rate Governor Ventura’s performance as chief executive as excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	67	11	60	10
Pretty Good	312	50	211	34
Only Fair	170	27	187	31
Poor	44	7	132	22
Don’t Know	33	5	18	3
Total	626	100%	608	100%

Third, we investigated how Minnesotan’s evaluate the performance of Governor Ventura as Commander in Chief. Of the five roles investigated, Governor Ventura received his highest performance grade for his role as commander in chief. This conclusion applies to both 2000 and 2001. Nonetheless, we did find that Minnesotans do not evaluate his job performance as favorable as they did in 2000. In 2000, 71 percent of Minnesotans gave their governor a favorable job review for the commander in chief role. This year, 61 percent of Minnesotans give Ventura a similar job performance review. Of the five-job performance roles investigated, commander in chief and chief diplomat are the only ones this year that more than one-half of Minnesotans give their governor a favorable job evaluation. In 2000, over one-half of all respondents gave Ventura a favorable job review for all five of his roles.

Twenty percent of Minnesotans in 2000 and 18 percent in 2001 give their governor an excellent job review for his performance as commander in chief. In 2000, 51 percent of Minnesotans gave Ventura a pretty-good job evaluation for his conduct as commander in chief but this year that amount declined to 43 percent. A review of tables 13-17 shows that Governor Ventura has lost approximately ten-15 percent of his favorable reviews from the pretty-good category. Finally, in the 2000 survey, we found that only four percent of Minnesotans gave Ventura a poor rating for his role of commander in chief. This year, we found that 12 percent of Minnesotans are of the opinion their governor performs his job as commander in chief poorly.

Table 16: Governor’s Role as Commander in Chief
“Another role is commander in chief, which is the ability and success in using the state national guard and other law enforcement agencies in situation such as natural disasters like tornadoes, strikes, and possible civil disputes. Would you rate Governor Ventura’s performance as commander in chief as excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	123	20	110	18
Pretty Good	316	51	264	43
Only Fair	74	12	114	19
Poor	23	4	73	12
Don’t Know	82	13	46	8
Total	618	100%	607	100%

Next, we inquired how Minnesotans perceive the performance of Governor Ventura as the state’s Political Leader. The lowest performance rating Ventura received of the five roles was for his job as political leader. Only one-third (34 percent) of Minnesotans give their governor an excellent or pretty-good rating for his performance as a political leader of the state. This is a drop of 19 percent from 2000. Importantly, 32 percent of Minnesotans rate his political leadership as poor. In comparison, 14 percent rated Ventura’s political leadership as poor in 2000. Overall, approximately two-thirds of Minnesotans give their governor an unfavorable rating for his performance as a political leader of the state.

Table 17: Governor’s Role as Political Leader
“Another role is that of political leader, which is the ability and success in leading their political party, setting the political agenda for the state, and helping lead and shape Minnesota public opinion. Would you rate Governor Ventura’s performance as political leader as excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	97	16	56	9
Pretty Good	233	37	157	25
Only Fair	188	30	189	31
Poor	90	14	188	32
Don’t Know	17	3	18	3
Total	625	100	608	100%

Finally, the SCSU Survey inquired how Minnesotans perceive Governor Ventura’s job performance as the state’s Chief Diplomat. Of the five roles investigated, Governor Ventura received his second highest job performance rating as chief diplomat. Nonetheless, the governor’s favorable performance ratings declined by 17 percent, from 70 percent in 2000, to 53 percent in 2001. This decline of 17 percent is consistent with the erosion of performance ratings for all five gubernatorial roles. The percentage of Minnesotans who rate Governor Ventura’s performance of chief diplomat as excellent decreased from 28 percent in 2000 to 16 percent in 2001. The percentage of Minnesotans who rate Governor Ventura’s performance as chief diplomat as pretty-good and only fair increased from 25 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in 2001. The percentage of Minnesotans who rate their governor’s work poor as the state’s diplomat more than doubled (seven percent in 2000 compared to 18 percent in 2001) between 2000 and 2001.

Table 18: Governor’s Role as Chief Diplomat
“Another role is chief diplomat, which is the ability and success in dealing with foreign governments and businesses, other governors, Congress, and the President I promoting Minnesota trade and industry. Would you rate Governor Ventura’s performance as chief diplomat as excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	173	28	95	16
Pretty Good	266	42	221	37
Only Fair	115	18	154	25
Poor	41	7	108	18
Don’t Know	32	5	28	4
Total	627	100%	606	100%

The final job performance rating we queried about obtains an impression of how adult Minnesotans rate Jesse Ventura’s overall job performance as Governor of Minnesota. Although Minnesotans clearly do not give their governor the same high overall favorable rating in 2001 (44 percent) as they did in 2000 (63 percent), the decline is not from the excellent category. Instead, it is from the pretty-good rating category. We found the least amount of change from 2000 to 2001 in the only fair performance category. Regarding the specific role questions, the least amount of change was found in the excellent category. Importantly, we found the percentage of Minnesotans who rate their governor’s overall job performance as poor more than doubled from 2000 (seven percent) to 2001 (18 percent). In 2000, a wide gap existed between the percentages of Minnesotans who evaluated Governor Ventura’s overall performance as excellent (28 percent) compared to those who evaluated his performance as poor (seven percent). In 2001,however, more Minnesotans (18 percent) evaluate their governor’s overall job performance as poor than excellent (16 percent).

The SCSU Survey first inquired of Minnesotans about their governor’s overall job performance in its November 1999 annual statewide survey. In that survey, the SCSU Survey found that 55 percent of Minnesotans rated Governor Ventura’s overall job performance as excellent or pretty good. Interestingly, the 1999 survey was conducted approximately one month following the publication of the Governor’s now infamous Playboy interview. It was widely thought that the Governor’s overall job performance favorable rating could not decline much lower than what he received after his Playboy comments. Clearly, in the year following the publication of the Playboy interview, Minnesotans pardoned Governor Ventura’s for his comments. Since then, however, the data suggests that Minnesotans are once again rating Governor Ventura’s overall job performance similar to those he received following the Playboy debacle. Throughout the past year, Governor Ventura has increased his attacks on the media and begun to regularly storm out of press conferences when he did not like the questions he received from the press. He has since stopped holding press conferences. He called Minnesota public schools unaccountable black holes of tax revenues. Soon after the terrorist attack on September 11, without any evidence, he declared himself a target of the terrorists. Although once embraced by state employees, after his verbal assaults on them when they engaged in a work strike, he is now their enemy. Most recently, he has taken to verbally attacking callers on his various radio call-in shows when he does not like their questions.

Table 19: Overall Rating of Jesse Ventura as Governor
“How would you rate the overall performance of Jesse Ventura as Governor; excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Excellent	77	12	68	11
Pretty Good	318	51	200	33
Only Fair	175	28	206	34
Poor	51	8	127	21
Don’t Know	6	1	9	1
Total	627	100%	610	100%

In terms of demographic indicators, males more than females, but not significantly more, like the overall job Governor Ventura is performing as governor. Interestingly, Minnesotans over the age 65 are much more likely to give Governor Ventura an excellent rating for his overall job performance than are other groups. The age group least likely to give Governor Ventura an excellent rating is the 25 to 35 age group. Of various occupation groups, 43 percent of disable persons gave Governor Ventura an excellent job rating, while an average of 12 percent Minnesotans in all other occupation groups gave their governor an excellent job review. Lower income Minnesotans are three times as likely (28 percent compared to ten percent) to give Governor Ventura an excellent for his job performance as other income groups. Approximately 21 percent of Democrat Party identifiers gave Governor Ventura an overall excellent job review compare to ten percent of Republicans and Independence Party identifiers.

The final table included in this report shows how Ventura might fare if he ran for re-election and if the election were held now. Jesse Ventura was elected with 37 percent of the vote in 1998. In 2000, the SCSU Survey found that 47 percent of Minnesota voters would vote to re-elect Governor Ventura. He seemed unstoppable in 2000 and easily translated that support into victory after victory in the 2001 legislative session. Now, however, his potential for re-election is not as clear. In a three-way race between Governor Ventura and whoever might run as a DFL and a Republican Party candidate, the race could be considered an even match or one for the Democrat Party candidate to win since more voters today still consider themselves Democrats than Republicans.

Table 20: Voting for Jesse Ventura
“If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Jesse Ventura as Governor?”
	2000		2001
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY	PERCENT	FREQUENCY	PERCENT
Yes	290	47	195	32
No	221	36	339	56
Not Sure/Don’t Know	107	17	74	12
Total	618	100%	608	100%

In terms of demographic identifiers, males compare to females are more likely to vote for Governor Ventura if the election were held today. Minnesotans over the age 25 are more likely to vote for Governor Ventura again than are those under age 24. We did not find a majority of future Ventura voter support in a single age group. Fifty seven percent of Minnesotans who identified themselves as disabled indicated they would vote for Ventura if the election were held today. Otherwise, a majority of support was not found in any other occupational groups. In terms of income groups, we found that only 25 percent of respondents in all income groups are willing to vote for Governor Ventura if he ran again and the election were held today. However, a majority of those making less than $25-30,000 per year are willing to vote for Governor Ventura if the election were held today. Of those Minnesotans with incomes less than $25-30,000, approximately 50 percent suggested they are ready to vote for Governor Ventura. Democrats (32 percent), more than Republicans (25 percent), are prepared to vote for Governor Ventura if the election were held today. Approximately 40 percent of Independence Party identifiers indicated they would vote for Governor Ventura if he ran and the election was held today.

PRESS RELEASE

ST. CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FROM THE FALL 2001 STATEWIDE SCSU SURVEY OMNIBUS SURVEY

METHODOLOGY

The SCSU Survey completed it annual fall statewide survey on November 15^th. This year, we interviewed 611 randomly chosen Minnesota adults. Survey Sampling, Inc. of Fairfield, Connecticut, generated the sample.

As is always the case with our statewide omnibus surveys, we used a random digit dial sample, which is a sample unique to telephone sampling that generates telephone numbers on a random basis, thus avoiding bias with listed telephone numbers. The margin of error of the sample is no greater than plus or minus 3.9 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that if one draw 20 samples of the state and administered the same instrument, it would be expected that the overall findings would be greater/lesser than 3.9 percent only one time in twenty. However, in all sample surveys there are other possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. These include interviewer and coder error, respondent misinterpretation, and analysis errors. When analysis is made of sub-samples such as respondent gender, the sample error may be larger.

All interviewing was conducted from November 5 to November 15, except Friday and Saturday November 9 and 10, from SCSU Survey calling laboratory on the St. Cloud State University campus. The survey was conducted as one part of two separate courses offered by Dr. Steven Wagner and Dr. Stephen Frank of the SCSU Department of Political Science. Students enrolled in those courses conducted all interviewing, after three or more hours of training.

The cooperation rate of the survey is 56%. The demographics of the sample match census and other known characteristics of the state population very well. For example, the ratio of male to female respondents in the sample is 49 percent to 51 percent, which almost perfectly matches the adult population. Other variables, such as income, employment status and political party affiliation closely match with is know of the Minnesota adult population.

Drs. Stephen Frank and Steven Wagner, with Dr. Michelle Kukoleca Hammes, also of the political science department, direct the SCSU Survey and serve as Principle Investigators of the annual statewide omnibus survey.

FINDINGS

State on Right or Wrong Track: A majority, 56 percent, think the state is heading in the right direction. However, this is down by 14 percent from 2000. This year, 27 percent think the state is headed down the wrong track. In 2000, only 16 percent of respondent thought the state was headed down the wrong track.

Important Problem Facing the State: The top three problems facing the state are Education (25%), Welfare, Housing and Unemployment (12%) and Taxes (11%) according to our 2001 sample. In 2000, education and taxes also ranked in the top three, but not welfare, housing and unemployment. More respondents (5%) said that the Minnesota Twins/Sports is the greatest problem facing the state today than did respondents (3%) who think that transportation issues are the most important problem facing the state.

Importance of Keeping the Twins: Sixty six percent said it is personally very important or somewhat important to them to keep the Twins in Minnesota. This is the first time we have asked how “important” it is to respondents personally to keep the Twins, we have asked many questions about the Twins and constructing a new stadium for the team. In the past, we only obtain a mild response about the Twins and never found support for publicly or partially publicly financed stadium. Follow-up on this issue is urgent.

Feeling Thermometer: Annually, we ask Minnesotans if they recognize various political leaders and, if they do, how “warm” they feel toward to those individuals. In terms of recognition, less than one-half recognized DFL gubernatorial rivals Judi Dutcher or Becky Lourey. Only 19% recognized Becky Lourey compare to 42% who recognized Judi Dutcher. Of those that did recognize the candidates, the respondents are slightly warmer toward Auditor Dutcher compared to Senator Lourey. In terms of the other potential gubernatorial match-up, almost one-half of our respondents recognized Tim Pawlenty compared to only about one-quarter who recognized Brian Sullivan. Respondents are warmer toward Tim Pawlenty compared to Brian Sullivan. In the U.S. Senate match-up between Senator Wellstone and Mayor Norm Coleman, almost everyone recognizes the two individuals, but Minnesotans are warmer toward Coleman. Perhaps the big news is how warm (or heading cold) are Minnesotans toward their governor. In 2000, Governor Ventura received a “warm” reading of 60 degrees. This year, it dropped to 49 degrees. GEORGE BUSH?

U.S. Senate Match-Up: Big trouble is on the horizon for Senator Wellstone. We asked or respondents to consider, if the U.S. Senate race was held today and the match-up was between Mayor Coleman and Senator Wellstone, who would they vote for. Forty-two percent indicated Coleman and 43 percent indicated Wellstone. The real trouble for Wellstone is that only eight percent are undecided.

DFL GUBERNATORIAL MATCH-UP: Respondents who indicated the always vote DFL are DFL voters but sometimes vote for another party, were asked to pick who they would vote for in a hypothetical primary match-up between Becky Lourey and Judi Dutcher. Although most respondents (57%) could not make a choice today, of those that did, 11% picked Lourey whereas 29% picked Dutcher.

REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL MATCH-UP: Respondents who indicated the always vote Republican or are Republican voters but sometimes vote for another party, were asked to pick who they would vote for in a hypothetical primary match-up between Brian Sullivan and Tim Pawlenty. Although most respondents (62%) could not make a choice today, of those that did, 15% picked Sullivan whereas 21% picked Pawlenty.

WEASEL WORDS ON PRIMARIES

Governor Ventura’s performance: In the 2000 statewide survey, we asked Minnesotans to rate the job performance of Governor Ventura. We repeated the same questions this year. In terms of leading the legislature, 40 percent of Minnesotans this year give Governor Ventura an excellent or pretty good rating. In 2000, 59 percent of Minnesotans gave their governor an excellent or pretty-good job performance rating for leading the legislature. In terms of serving as chief executive, 44 percent of our sample gave Ventura an excellent or pretty-good rating this year for his the job he has performed as chief executive. In 2000, however, 61 percent of Minnesotans thought he was performing as chief executive as excellent or pretty-good. In terms of commander in chief, 61 percent of Minnesotans think their governor is performing in the excellent and pretty-good range. In 2000, 71 percent thought his job performance as commander in chief rated an excellent or pretty good rating. As political leader, 34 percent of the Minnesotans we interviewed thought their governor was performing at the excellent or pretty-good level. In 2000, 53 percent thought Ventura’s performance as political leader was in the excellent or pretty-good level. In terms of chief diplomat, 53 percent of Minnesotans think their governor is performing at the excellent or pretty-good level. In 2000, 70 percent thought Ventura’s role performance as chief diplomat was at the excellent or pretty good level. In terms of his overall job performance, 43 percent of Minnesotans think his performance is excellent or pretty good. In 2000, 63 percent of all Minnesotans saw their governor performing at the excellent or pretty good level. The data is clear, Governor Ventura’s overall job performance has dropped 20 percent in the past year.

Vote for Governor Ventura: The question on many minds today is whether Jesse Ventura will run for a second term. We asked our sample of Minnesotans, if the election for governor were held today, would they vote for Jesse Ventura. We asked the same question in 2000 and found that 47 percent of our sample was ready to vote to retain their governor. This year, however, we found far fewer Minnesotans are ready to vote for their governor. Thirty-two percent (or a drop of 15% from last year) of our sample would vote for Ventura if the election were held today. Jesse Ventura won the gubernatorial election with 37 percent of the vote.

A more complete discussion of the methodology and findings may be examined on the SCSU Survey web page. The address is:

http://stcloudstate.edu/scussurvey http://web.stcloudstate.edu--------

You may call Dr. Frank at 320-255-4231 or email him at sfsurvey@stclouldstate.edu

You may call Dr. Wagner at 320-654-5423 or email him at swagner@stcloudstate.edu

You may call Dr. Kukoleca Hammes at 320-255-4130 or email her at mhammes@stcloudstate.edu

Questions on Political Participation

Table 2: Interest in Politics
”First, how interested would you say you are in politics? Are you very interested, somewhat interested, not very interested, or not at all interested?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY 2000	PERCENT 2000	FREQUENCY 2001	PERCENT 2001
Very Interested	175	28%	155	25%
Somewhat Interested	320	51%	351	57%
Not Very Interested	110	17%	80	13%
Not at All Interested	23	4%	122	4%
Don’t Know/ Refused	1	0%	3	1%
Total	629	100%	611	100%

FIGURE 1: INTEREST IN POLITICS

Table 3: Discussion of Politics
”When you get together with friends, would you say you discuss political matters frequently, occasionally, or never?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY 2000	PERCENT 2000	FREQUENCY 2001	PERCENT 2001
Frequently	132	21%	138	22%
Occasionally	366	58%	378	62%
Never	128	20%	92	15%
Don’t Know/ Refused	2	1%	3	1%
Total	629	100%	611	100%

FIGURE 2: DISCUSSION OF POLITICS

Table 4: Signing a Petition
”Here are some other political activities you might engage in. For each one, please tell me if you have actually done any of these things, whether you might do it, or would never under any circumstances do it.” “Would you sign a petition?”
RESPONSE	FREQUENCY 2000	PERCENT 2000	FREQUENCY 2001	PERCENT 2001
Have Actually Done It	152	24%	291	47%
Might Do It	232	37%	280	46%
Would Never Do It	239	38%	35	6%
Don’t Know/ Refused	6	1%	5	1%
Total	629	100%	611	100%

FIGURE 3: SIGNING A PETITION

Table 5:

Attending A Rally