10/22 ROUGH FALL SURVEY DRAFT

SCSU SURVEY--ANNUAL FALL STATEWIDE SURVEY

Last revised 2/1/2000

Prepared

Dr. Stephen Frank

Dr. Steven Wagner

Dr. Michelle Kukoleca Hammes

Principal Investigators

SCSU Survey

Social Science Research Institute

College of Social Sciences

St. Cloud State University

St. Cloud, Minnesota

December 1999

=Working Link

Part I-Methodology- See Below

Part II-Questionnaire-See Below

Link to SPSS Frequencies-Descriptive Measures

Link to Reports ( past thermometer charts need to be redone, reports need to be added for women and elections findings )

=========================

Part I-Methodology

SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY FOR THE FALL, 1999 SAINT CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY SURVEY

TWENTY YEARS OF SERVICE IN CONDUCTING LOCAL, REGIONAL AND STATE SURVEYS

The SCSU Survey is an ongoing survey research arm of the Social Science Research Institute in the College of Social Sciences at St. Cloud State University. Dr. Steve Frank began the survey in 1980 conducting several omnibus surveys a year of central Minnesota adults in conjunction with his Political Science classes. The omnibus surveys are now done once a year but now have primarily a statewide focus. Drs. Steven Wagner and Michelle Kukoleca Hammes serve as co-directors with Frank. Clients can buy into the survey or contract for specialized surveys.

Directors are the surveys are Dr. Steve Frank, SCSU Professor of Political Science, Dr. Steven Wagner (SCSU Assistant Professor of Public and non-profit administration) and Dr. Michelle Kukoleca Hammes (SCSU Professor of Political Science). Mr. Justin Wedeking and Ms. Kim Litwinczak serve as senior supervising student directors. Other student directors are Rachael Olson, Katie Sawyer, Jim Mount, Holly Dasinger and Chris Devore. Jason Rice is a former supervising director providing consulting assistance. Mr. Joe Leduc is our lead technical support person. After five or more hours of training and screening about 50 political science students conducted the actual interviews. Directors monitored them. All calls were made from the SCSU Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing Survey Research Laboratory (CATI). The survey software is developed by Sawtooth Software. The survey was administered on Sundays through Saturdays (not Fridays) between November 6-18, 1999.

Several steps were taken to ensure that the telephone sample of Minnesota adults who were eighteen years of age or older was representative of the larger population. Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Connecticut prepared the random digit sample of telephone numbers. Random digit dialing makes available changed, new, and unlisted numbers. Drawing numbers from a telephone book may skip as many as 20% of Minnesota households. Within each household the particular respondent was determined in a statistically unbiased fashion. This means that the selection process alternated between men and women and older and younger respondents. Few substitutions were allowed. In order to reach hard-to-get respondents each number was called up to ten times over different days and times and appointments made as necessary to interview the designated respondent at her/his convenience. Most calls were made after 4:00 PM weekdays and during the day on Saturdays and Sundays.

In samples of 602 interviews the overall sample error due to sampling and other random effects is approximately plus/minus 3.9% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if one were to have drawn 20 samples of the state and administered the same instrument it would be expected that the overall findings would be greater/lesser than 3.9% only one time in twenty.

However, in all sample surveys there are other possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. These include interviewer and coder error, respondent misinterpretation, and analysis errors. When analysis is made of subsamples such as respondents who are Republicans or breakdowns by variables such as gender the sample error may be larger.

The demographics of the sample matched census and other known characteristics of the larger state population very well. Usually surveys have to employ a statistical technique called weighting on demographics such as sex. Most surveys usually oversample females. However, the ratio of male to female adults in the sample is 49% to 51% which almost perfectly matches the adult population. Other variables such as household income, religion, age, political party affiliation and employment all closely match what is known of the Minnesota adult population. Therefore, weighting may not necessary.

The cooperation rate of the survey was 63%. This is several percentage points above the average for professional marketing firms. When the S.C.S.U. Survey does specialized contract surveys we use a smaller, more skilled group of student interviewers and the completion rate ranges from 68% to 80+%. Cooperation rate means that once an eligible household was reached over six of ten respondents agreed to participate in the survey.

The total survey consisted of 64 variables. Additional material on the survey's methodology and findings are available by contacting Steve Frank or Steven Wagner.

THE DIRECTORS ARE MEMBERS OF THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATION OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH (M.A.P.O.R.) AND THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH. THE DIRECTORS SUBSCRIBE TO THE CODE OF ETHICS OF THE A.A.P.O.R.

TABLE ONE-CALL BREAKDOWN

Description Record

Completed Calls	602
Not Working	611
Not Eligible - Respondent not available during the period of the study, language problems, illness.	95
Callbacks - Appointments made but contact could not be made with designated respondent.	855
Refusals - Attempt to re-contact and convert refusals to a completion was made for 208 of the refusals.	320
Answering Machine - Live contact could not be made even after nine calls.	323
Business Phones	301
No Answers - Probable non-working numbers but some may be households on vacation, etc.	448
Fax/Modem	154
Busy	393
Partial - Incomplete but for demographics	9
Partial - Incomplete, more than demographics	8
Call Blocking	43
Total Calls Placed	4162

Frequencies-Some Sample Information Compared to Census and other Data

Census figures indicate the state is about 51% female. Respondents are 18 years of age or older. Political party data parallels past years. This is the first year we specifically did breakdowns for the Reform Party. Age is 18 and above. This is very close to census data. For county data, again the sample is very close to the real population. Examples, county 3 is Anoka (5 in sample and 5 in state--37 is Dakota 5 in sample and 6 in state, 53-Hennepin 18-24, 123 is Ramsey 11 and 11, 137 St. Louis 5 and 5 and son on).

The valid percent usually excludes refusals and sometimes other categories such as don't knows. In the Social Sciences it is common to exclude such data and use the valid percent.

		gender of respondents	political party affiliation	age of respondent	working now or what	religious preference	combined household income	self described ideology	MN county from data base
N	Valid	602	572	587	589	569	496	584	602
N	Missing	0	30	15	13	33	106	18	0

gender of respondents

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	male	289	48.0	48.0	48.0
	female	313	52.0	52.0	100.0
	Total	602	100.0	100.0

political party affiliation

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	alway dem	47	7.8	8.2	8.2
	usually dem	131	21.8	22.9	31.1
	Independent but closer to dem	45	7.5	7.9	39.0
	ind	88	14.6	15.4	54.4
	ind but closer to rep	40	6.6	7.0	61.4
	Usually rep	93	15.4	16.3	77.6
	alway rep	36	6.0	6.3	83.9
	reform	26	4.3	4.5	88.5
	oth	26	4.3	4.5	93.0
	apol	10	1.7	1.7	94.8
	dk	30	5.0	5.2	100.0
	Total	572	95.0	100.0
Missing	ref	30	5.0
Total		602	100.0

age of respondent

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	18-24	54	9.0	9.2	9.2
	25-34	97	16.1	16.5	25.7
	35-44	131	21.8	22.3	48.0
	45-54	110	18.3	18.7	66.8
	55-65	85	14.1	14.5	81.3
	65+	110	18.3	18.7	100.0
	Total	587	97.5	100.0
Missing	dk	1	.2
	ref	14	2.3
	Total	15	2.5
Total		602	100.0

working now or what

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	working now	390	64.8	66.2	66.2
	laid off	9	1.5	1.5	67.7
	unem	10	1.7	1.7	69.4
	retired	117	19.4	19.9	89.3
	disabled	8	1.3	1.4	90.7
	house man	29	4.8	4.9	95.6
	student	26	4.3	4.4	100.0
	Total	589	97.8	100.0
Missing	ref	13	2.2
Total		602	100.0

religious preference

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	cath	179	29.7	31.5	31.5
	bap	14	2.3	2.5	33.9
	luth	178	29.6	31.3	65.2
	pres	12	2.0	2.1	67.3
	meth	24	4.0	4.2	71.5
	epis	9	1.5	1.6	73.1
	oth chris	43	7.1	7.6	80.7
	jewish	2	.3	.4	81.0
	non	63	10.5	11.1	92.1
	oth	45	7.5	7.9	100.0
	Total	569	94.5	100.0
Missing	dont kn	3	.5
	ref	30	5.0
	Total	33	5.5
Total		602	100.0

combined household income

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	under 10	23	3.8	4.6	4.6
	10-15 th	23	3.8	4.6	9.3
	15-20th	31	5.1	6.3	15.5
	20-25th	27	4.5	5.4	21.0
	25-30	43	7.1	8.7	29.6
	30-40th	70	11.6	14.1	43.8
	40-50th	78	13.0	15.7	59.5
	50-100	161	26.7	32.5	91.9
	100,000+	40	6.6	8.1	100.0
	Total	496	82.4	100.0
Missing	dk	20	3.3
	ref	86	14.3
	Total	106	17.6
Total		602	100.0

self described ideology

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	very lib	40	6.6	6.8	6.8
	lib	123	20.4	21.1	27.9
	moder	186	30.9	31.8	59.8
	con	172	28.6	29.5	89.2
	very con	44	7.3	7.5	96.7
	dk	19	3.2	3.3	100.0
	Total	584	97.0	100.0
Missing	ref	18	3.0
Total		602	100.0

MN county from data base

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1aiken	2	.3	.3	.3
	3 anoka	31	5.1	5.1	5.5
	7	5	.8	.8	6.3
	9	6	1.0	1.0	7.3
	11	1	.2	.2	7.5
	13	6	1.0	1.0	8.5
	15	3	.5	.5	9.0
	17	6	1.0	1.0	10.0
	19	5	.8	.8	10.8
	21	3	.5	.5	11.3
	23	2	.3	.3	11.6
	25	8	1.3	1.3	13.0
	27	10	1.7	1.7	14.6
	29	2	.3	.3	15.0
	33	3	.5	.5	15.4
	35	5	.8	.8	16.3
	37	29	4.8	4.8	21.1
	39	2	.3	.3	21.4
	41	4	.7	.7	22.1
	43	1	.2	.2	22.3
	45	3	.5	.5	22.8
	47	6	1.0	1.0	23.8
	49	8	1.3	1.3	25.1
	53 hennepin	111	18.4	18.4	43.5
	55	2	.3	.3	43.9
	57	7	1.2	1.2	45.0
	59	9	1.5	1.5	46.5
	61	6	1.0	1.0	47.5
	63	2	.3	.3	47.8
	65	5	.8	.8	48.7
	67	8	1.3	1.3	50.0
	71	3	.5	.5	50.5
	73	1	.2	.2	50.7
	75	2	.3	.3	51.0
	77	1	.2	.2	51.2
	79	5	.8	.8	52.0
	83	1	.2	.2	52.2
	85	5	.8	.8	53.0
	87	1	.2	.2	53.2
	89	1	.2	.2	53.3
	91	5	.8	.8	54.2
	93	5	.8	.8	55.0
	95	2	.3	.3	55.3
	97	2	.3	.3	55.6
	99	4	.7	.7	56.3
	101	2	.3	.3	56.6
	103	2	.3	.3	57.0
	105	3	.5	.5	57.5
	109	17	2.8	2.8	60.3
	111	11	1.8	1.8	62.1
	113	2	.3	.3	62.5
	115	4	.7	.7	63.1
	117	1	.2	.2	63.3
	119	1	.2	.2	63.5
	121	2	.3	.3	63.8
	123 ramsey	67	11.1	11.1	74.9
	125	1	.2	.2	75.1
	127	3	.5	.5	75.6
	129	2	.3	.3	75.9
	131	5	.8	.8	76.7
	133	1	.2	.2	76.9
	135	3	.5	.5	77.4
	137	30	5.0	5.0	82.4
	139	9	1.5	1.5	83.9
141	12	2.0	2.0	85.9
143	1	.2	.2	86.0
145	24	4.0	4.0	90.0
147	1	.2	.2	90.2
149	2	.3	.3	90.5
151	3	.5	.5	91.0
153	3	.5	.5	91.5
159	1	.2	.2	91.7
161	4	.7	.7	92.4
163	24	4.0	4.0	96.3
165	2	.3	.3	96.7
169	5	.8	.8	97.5
171	15	2.5	2.5	100.0
Total	602	100.0	100.0

Part II-Questionnaire

Question CHECKQ

IF INTERVIEW IS A RESTART-MAKE SURE YOU HAVE PROPER RESPONDENT REINTRODUCE YOURSELF AND SAY SOMETHING LIKE "We previously started this interview and couldn't finish it at the time. May we finish it now? If respondent wants to know who the interview is for, you can tell them it is the annual statewide St. Cloud State University survey.

YOU CAN HIT CONTROL/END AT ANY TIME TO TERMINATE AN INTERVIEW-PUT MESSAGE FOR CALLBACKS, REFUSALS,ETC.

Question HELLO

Hello, my name is ______________ (YOUR NAME) at St. Cloud State University. I am calling from our survey research center in St. Cloud. We are conducting a study of Minnesota residents about their views on issues such as sports and Minnesota state government. We are not asking for contributions or trying to sell you anything. Your telephone number was drawn by a computer in a random sample of the state.

[USE ONLY IF NUMBER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RESIDENCE PHONE]

Is this a residential phone. [IF NO, TERMINATE WITH, E.G.;] I'm sorry I have the wrong place.

Question GENDER

It is important that we interview a man in some households and a woman in others so that the results will truly represent all the people in the state. According to the method used by our university, I need to interview the _________________________

May I speak with that person?

[ROTATE WITH EVERY INTERVIEW-KEEP TRACK ON SHEET BY YOUR

COMPUTER]

1. oldest male 18 years of age or older who lives in your household

2. youngest male 18 years of age or older who lives in your household

3. oldest female 18 years of age or older who lives in your household

4. youngest female 18 years of age or older who lives in your household

Question ETHICS

[IF YES-START INTERVIEW][OR-WHEN SELECTED PERSON ANSWERS REPEAT INTRODUCTION BUT NOT SCREEN]

Before starting the roughly ten minute survey, I want to mention that I would be happy to answer any questions about the study either now or later. Also, this interview is completely voluntary. If we should come to any question, which you don't want to answer, just let me know and we'll go on to the next question.

IF NO

When may I call back to reach him/her? So that I will know who to ask for what is his/her first name?

[REPEAT BACK TO BE SURE YOU HAVE IT AND SHOW PRONUNCIATION IF IT IS A PROBLEM. IF RESPONDENT OBJECTS TO PROVIDING NAME]

We only need the person's first name; the last name isn't necessary.

[IF DESIGNATED SEX/AGE DOESN'T LIVE IN HOUSEHOLD ASK FOR OPPOSITE SEX/AGE 18 YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER]

[NAME]_________________________

[TIME AND DAY FOR CALL-BACK]

Question Q1

Let us begin by asking, do you think things in the state of Minnesota are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

1. RIGHT DIRECTION

2. NEUTRAL-VOL

3. WRONG TRACK

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q2

What do you think is the single most important problem facing the State of Minnesota today?

[PROBE FOR ONE SPECIFIC RESPONSE]

01. ABORTION 15 RELIGIOUS ISSUE

02. AGRICULTURE-GENERAL 16. POLITICS/POLITICIANS

03. AGRICULTURE- PROB /FARMERS 17. POVERTY/POOR

04. BUDGET/SUPLUS 18. SENIORISSUES/ELDERLY

05. CANDIDATE CHARACTER 19. SPORTS ISSUES

06. CRIMES/GANGS/VIOL 20. TAXES

07. DRUGS 21. WELFARE

08. ECON. ISSUES (JOBS-WAGES, ETC) 22. JESSE VENTURA

09. EDUCATION 23. OTHER

10. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 24. NO PROBLEM FACING STATE

11 FAMILY ISSUES 25 DON'T KNOW

12. GAMBLING 26. REFUSED

13. ISSUES RELATING TO INDIANS

14. MORAL ISSUES (VALUES)

Question Q3

Which political party, if any, do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you have just mentioned-the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or Reform Party?

1. REPUBLICAN

2. DEMOCRATIC

3. REFORM

4. OTHER-VOL

5. SAME-VOL

6. NEITHER

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q4

Thank you. Now let's switch to two questions about professional sports in Minnesota. I am going to list some of the professional sports that are, or soon will be, in Minnesota. Please tell me which one, if any, would you like to keep the most in Minnesota. Would you personally like to keep the Minnesota Twins, The Minnesota Vikings, the Minnesota Timbervolves, the Future Minnesota Wild hockey team, or the Minnesota Thunder Soccer team?

1. TWINS

2. VIKINGS

3. TIMBERWOLVES

4. MN. WILD

5. THUNDER

6. NONE-VOLUNTEERED

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q5

Recently the residents of St. Paul rejected a local sales tax to pay for one-third of the cost of building a new Twins stadium in the city of St. Paul. If the new owners are still willing to pay a third of the cost, do you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose allowing Hennepin County residents to vote for a county sales tax to pay for two-thirds of the cost to construct a new Twins stadium in Minneapolis?

1. STRONGLY SUPPORT

2. SUPPORT

3. OPPOSE

4. STRONGLY OPPOSE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q6

Is your opposition to public funding of a stadium for the Twins because (READ CHOICES 1-4-DO NOT READ NUMBERS)

1. Opposed to taxes for professional sports

2. No taxes for rich owners

3. No taxes for rich players

4. Don’t like baseball

5. OTHER

6. DON'T KNOW

7. REFUSED

8. NO OTHER RESPONSE

(READ 1-4- ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES)

Question Q7

Now I have a few questions about Governor Ventura. First, in last year's gubernatorial election, did you vote for Ventura, Coleman, Humphrey, some other candidate or did you not vote?

1. VENTURA

2. COLEMAN

3. HUMPHREY

4. OTHER

5. DID NOT VOTE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q8

If the election for governor were held again, would you vote for Ventura?

1. YES

2. NO

3. NOT SURE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q9

How would you rate the performance of Jesse Ventura as Governor: excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?

1. EXCELLENT

2. PRETTY GOOD

3. ONLY FAIR

4. POOR

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q11

Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view?

(READ CHOICES 1-4-DO NOT READ NUMBERS)

1. Governor Ventura is a needed breath of fresh air in state government

2. Governor Ventura is an embarrassment to the state

3. It is too soon to judge Governor Ventura's performance

4. None of the above

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q12

Do you think the local Minnesota media have been too harsh on Governor Ventura or have they treated Governor Ventura fairly?

1. TOO HARSH ON GOVERNOR VENTURA

2. TREATING GOVERNOR VENTURA FAIRLY

3. NOT SURE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q13

Governor Ventura rarely grants interviews to Minnesota reporters or journalists. Do you think this limits the amount of information the public obtains about how Ventura is governing?

1. YES-LIMITS INFORMATION

2. NO-DOESN'T LIMIT

3. NOT SURE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q15

Do you think Governor Ventura is interested in promoting himself, the interests of Minnesota, or both, when he grants interviews to national magazines and appears on national television talk and news shows?

1. PROMOTING HIMSELF

2. PROMOTING MINNESOTA

3. BOTH

4. NOT SURE

8. DON'T KNOW

9. REFUSED

Question Q16

Thank you. Here is a different kind of question. Please think of a thermometer that has a range of 0 to 100 degrees. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news. Ratings on the thermometer between 50 and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 and 50 mean that you do not feel too favorable toward the person. If we come to a person whose name you don't recognize, you don't need to rate that person. Just tell me and we will move on to the next one. If you do recognize the name, but do not feel particularly warm or cold toward the person, you would rate the person at the 50-degree mark.

Bill Clinton----------------